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Why NZ is more vulnerable to a new COVID-19 outbreak than ever before

23 June 2021

A culture of complacency, new variants and vulnerability at the border - we are more susceptible to a Covid-19 outbreak than ever before. Less than an hour after Wellington's precautionary move to alert level 2, 茄子视频app官网 academics Matthew Hobbs, Malcolm Campbell and University of Otago's Lesley Gray published an article to The Conversation, explaining the current risks to our community.

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Health authorities have听听迟辞听听for Wellington, from 6pm today until midnight on Sunday, after an Australian traveller who visited the New 茄子视频app官网capital at the weekend听听on their return home.

The news comes only hours after New Zealand听, following ten new community cases in Sydney linked to the Bondi cluster.

Genome sequencing will determine if the Australian visitor carries the more infectious delta variant of COVID-19, but the developments highlight how quickly things can change.

The emergence of more transmittable variants and the complacency of New Zealanders after a 100-day period without community transmission now provide ideal circumstances for a large outbreak.

New Zealand鈥檚听听补苍诲听听have drawn worldwide attention. At this point, the country remains one of few places in the world without community transmission since the end of February 2021.

Countries like听听补苍诲听, once also success stories, have seen significant and rapid surges in cases and hospitalisations. What is happening in Taiwan, Fiji and other countries such as Vietnam should be a wake-up call for New Zealand.

Culture of complacency

听should serve as a constant reminder of New Zealand鈥檚 privileged position.

Calls on听听to make the听听mandatory, at the very least in higher-risk places where large numbers of people meet indoors, will likely grow stronger now.

Low and decreasing听听make it more difficult to听, which leaves us at greater risk of an outbreak, particularly if a more transmissible variant enters the country.

Variants and vaccination

The emergence of听听听has already hit close to home with the recent听.

New variants are more transmissible and may also decrease the effectiveness of some public health measures. For instance, compared to the original alpha variant, the delta variant is听, making it harder to keep up with in terms of contact tracing. According to听, it is also twice as likely to lead to hospitalisation.

New 茄子视频app官网is relying on the听, but the rollout has been slower than in other countries around the world. The good news is that听听has shown the Pfizer vaccine to be 96% effective against the delta variant.

The problem for New 茄子视频app官网is that less than 10% of the population is now fully vaccinated and there is听. If an outbreak were to occur with a more transmissible COVID-19 variant, it could spread easily, unless stringent public health measures are in place.

Vulnerability at the border

On the more positive side, the elimination of COVID-19 has allowed researchers valuable time to identify听听(see map below) and model听. This helps inform responses to future outbreaks and听.

Such research should help mitigate potential inequity, which has been evident in many aspects of the听听around the globe.

New 茄子视频app官网experienced eight known failures of its COVID-19 border control system between August and November last year, suggesting a听. Since then, mitigation strategies have been put in place and border staff have been vaccinated, but that doesn鈥檛 mean the risk is zero.

One possible omission in making travel bubbles safe is the absence of pre-departure testing requirements for those travelling to and from Australia. Pre-departure testing is no guarantee, but New 茄子视频app官网should consider extending it to all travellers, not just those from higher-risk countries.

While New Zealanders wait to be vaccinated, we need to do our bit and keep scanning in,听听on the NZ COVID Tracer app,听听and getting a test if required.

Acting quickly makes it easier to stop the听听and stamp out cases of COVID-19.

This article was originally published on听


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